With over a 100 billion Shilling Profit and Record Dividends Is Safaricom the Ultimate Buy on the NSE Right Now?

“Kenya has delivered an outstanding performance, and Ethiopia has made a valuable contribution, together making this one of our strongest results yet.” -Peter Ndegwa, Group CEO, Safaricom PLC.

Last month we asked a trillion-shilling question. Is the massive investor obsession with Safaricom still backed by hard fundamentals, or is the market simply running on the fumes of a famous name (Safaricom Shares Analysis 2026: Why Are the NSE Investors Still Watching?)? Today the debate is officially over. On May 7, 2026 Safaricom PLC dropped its audited financial results, and they did not just meet market expectations, they completely shattered them. Marking the absolute strongest performance in the entire history of the company, these numbers provide the definitive answer to why this fintech giant remains the undisputed anchor of the Nairobi Securities Exchange. We have summarized the record-breaking figures and broken down exactly what this historic pay-out means for the future of your portfolio.

Full Year Financial Results: Key Highlights

According to the results, Safaricom PLC achieved the 100 billion mark in net income. This is a 67.3% improvement over last year (2025), driven by the strength of the Kenyan business and the narrowing of Ethiopian losses. For the first time in Safaricom's history, mobile data has overtaken voice as the largest contributor to connectivity revenue. This accounts for 42.1% vs voice's 41.3% reflecting a permanent structural shift in how Kenyan consumers communicate and transact. Data revenue grew 14.4% to Ksh 83.4 billion, supported by a 21.2% increase in smartphones on Safaricom's network to 33.2 million and a 55.5% increase in active 5G devices. Kenya’s operating free cashflow rose to Ksh 173.6 billion, enabling dividend payments and continued investment in Ethiopia. The Kenya EBITDA margin of 56.8% is quite impressive as for every shilling of revenue generated in Kenya, more than half becomes operating profit before depreciation. This is the hallmark of a business with structural pricing power and operational leverage.

M-PESA, one of the company’s income engines, generated Ksh 182.7 billion in full-year revenue with 41 million active customers in Kenya, up from 40 million customers in the prior period. The platform processed 17.1 billion micro-transactions during the year, accounting for 36.8% of total transaction volumes highlighting its role as the daily financial backbone of the Kenyan economy. The merchant ecosystem continues to expand as its base grew 71% to 3.1 million. Pochi La Biashara, the platform used predominantly by informal sector traders, expanded 81.5% to 2.1 million merchants, making it the dominant merchant platform in the ecosystem. Lipa na M-PESA grew 54.2% to 1.0 million merchants. This merchant growth matters because it deepens the M-PESA moat: the more merchants that accept M-PESA, the more indispensable the platform becomes to every Kenyan consumer.

Wealth management assets more than doubled to Ksh 21 billion, with the Ziidi money market fund accounting for Ksh 18.7 billion. The Ziidi Trader, a service which allows M-PESA customers to buy and sell NSE-listed shares directly from their phones, is already transforming retail participation in Kenya's capital markets. The capital markets, especially the NSE, are now more accessible to investors, hence increased participation.

Ethiopia remains the most debated aspect of the company. As of 2026, the Ethiopia operations recorded an EBIT loss of Ksh 37.7 billion, a significant number, but materially better than the Ksh 57–74 billion loss rate of the prior year. The service revenue surged 86.6% to Ksh 14.1 billion while the customer base grew to 13.6 million, with the network now covering 60% of the Ethiopian population across 3,504 sites. The trajectory is clearly improving, and FY2026 confirmed that the pace of improvement is accelerating. Financial analysts have estimated that by 2027, the EBIT will breakeven and will unleash a new level of the company’s profitability.

Dividend Yield

Thanks to its strong results, Safaricom PLC announced a total pay-out of Ksh 80.1 billion to shareholders. This is the largest single dividend ever paid on the NSE.

It translated to a total of sh. 2 per share, comprising sh. 0.85 interim dividend and sh.1.15 as final dividend. This is a 66.7% rise in dividends from the financial year 2022 and the highest pay-out in Safaricom’s history. At the current share price of around sh.31, the total dividend of sh.2 results in a dividend yield of 6.45%. For every sh.31 investment in Safaricom shares today, it will lead to a Ksh. 2 returns in cash dividends within the next few months, assuming the final dividend is approved during the AGM. For an investor holding 10,000 Safaricom shares purchased at Ksh 31, the total dividend income would be Ksh 20,000, comprising Ksh 8,500 already paid in March and a further Ksh 11,500 expected in September 2026. That is a guaranteed cash return before any capital gain on the shares themselves.

Impact of the Financial Results on the NSE and Safaricom Shareholders

Safaricom's share price closed at Ksh 31.00 on 7th May 2026. Over the past 12 months, Safaricom has delivered a total return of 68.94%, making it one of the best-performing large-cap stocks on the NSE. To anchor that, Safaricom reached its all-time high of Ksh 45.25 in August 2021, during the post-COVID market euphoria. The share price then entered a painful multi-year correction as Ethiopia's losses mounted, interest rates rose globally, and investor sentiment in emerging market telecoms soured. The recovery from those lows to Ksh 31 represents a genuine fundamental rerating, not speculative momentum.

Analyst price targets from the pre-results consensus survey range from Ksh 34.00 to Ksh 44.00 implying further upside of between 10% and 42% from current levels. The bull case is driven by an Ethiopia breakeven hit scheduled in FY27, M-PESA maintaining double-digit revenue growth, and continued data revenue expansion as 5G deepens.

Safaricom is not just another listed company. It accounts for over a third of the NSE's total equity market capitalization, and its movements set the tone for the entire exchange. When Safaricom rallies strongly on results day, the NASI and NSE 20 indices typically move upward as institutional and retail confidence generated by a Safaricom beat flows into other counters across Banking, Manufacturing, and Consumer sectors.

The Ksh 80.1 billion dividend distribution is the largest wealth transfer event in NSE history. Pension funds, insurance companies, and retail investors receiving those funds will recycle a meaningful portion back into the market providing liquidity and supporting valuations across the board.

Ziidi Trader Safaricom’s new platform, is a structural development that could permanently increase retail participation in Kenya's capital markets. By removing the friction of opening a brokerage account and enabling share purchases directly from an M-PESA wallet, Safaricom is democratizing NSE access for millions of Kenyans who have never previously invested in equities. The long-term impact of this on NSE trading volumes, liquidity, and market depth could be transformational.

"Safaricom is quietly becoming the gateway to capital markets in Kenya. Millions of Kenyans who have never opened a brokerage account can now buy NSE shares from their phone through Ziidi Trader."

Despite the strength of these results, investors considering Safaricom should be aware of the following:

1. 1. Ethiopia execution risk: Management has guided for FY2027 EBIT breakeven, but this remains a projection. Any deterioration in the Ethiopian macroeconomic environment, regulatory changes, or intensified competition could push that timeline out and every delay extends losses.
   2. Valuation: After a 69% share price rally over 12 months, Safaricom is no longer cheap. Investors buying today are paying for a significant amount of future growth to already be priced in. Any disappointment in FY2027 results could trigger a sharp correction.
   3. Regulatory risk: The Finance Bill 2026 proposes to treat payment network fees and interchange fees as royalties a change that, if enacted, could increase Safaricom's tax burden on M-PESA revenues. This is a developing risk that investors should monitor through the legislative process.
   4. Voice revenue decline: Voice revenue grew just 1.3% in FY2026, and messaging revenue fell 11.8% as customers migrated to WhatsApp and other internet services. While data and M-PESA are more than compensating, the structural decline in legacy revenues is a long-term headwind.
   5. Government stake overhang: The Kenyan government holds a significant stake in Safaricom and has been a major shareholder at prices above current levels. Any potential stake disposal could create selling pressure on the share price.

Safaricom's FY2026 results are, without qualification, the best full-year results in the company's history. A Ksh 100 billion net income, a 66.7% dividend increase, Ethiopia losses narrowing decisively, and M-PESA continuing to deepen its penetration of Kenya's financial system, are the hallmarks of a business executing its strategy with precision.

For the long-term investor, the investment case remains compelling. The moat is deep, the cash generation is exceptional, the dividend policy is shareholder-friendly, and the Ethiopia option, if it delivers breakeven in FY2027 as guided, could add significant further value to the stock.

For the short-term investor or someone considering entry after a 69% run-up: patience may be rewarded. Post-results consolidation often creates better entry points than buying on the announcement day itself. Watch for the share price to settle in the Ksh 29–31 range before considering a new position.

For income investors: a 6.45% dividend yield from Kenya's most dominant corporate franchise, with a track record of dividend growth, is hard to find elsewhere on the NSE or in the fixed income market at current rates.

This is not a speculative story; it is a fundamentally sound business going through its best year ever. The key question is not whether Safaricom is a good company, but whether the current share price adequately reflects how good it is becoming.